The world of college football is abuzz with anticipation as we approach the 2026 season, and one question looms large: Are upsets by FCS teams against Power Four opponents a thing of the past? It's a topic that demands the attention of every sports enthusiast, especially those who revel in the unpredictable nature of the game.
The statistics paint a stark picture. Power conference teams have dominated, winning an astonishing 125 consecutive games against FCS competition. The last time an FCS team emerged victorious was in 2023 when Sacramento State, now an FBS team, stunned Stanford. Since then, the gap has only widened, and the quest for an FCS upset has become a rare occurrence.
What's driving this trend? The transfer portal and NIL deals have significantly impacted the landscape. Top FCS players are increasingly lured to the FBS level, leaving their teams depleted. This talent drain is evident in the numbers: FBS power conference teams boast a remarkable 223-2 record against FCS opponents since the NIL era began in 2022. It's a far cry from the 16 seasons prior, where the margin was slightly narrower.
However, a closer look reveals a glimmer of hope for FCS teams. While the overall trend is undeniable, there are still instances where FCS programs challenge their FBS counterparts. The upcoming season features several intriguing matchups that could defy the odds.
Let's delve into some of these potential shockers. South Dakota State, a former FCS powerhouse, takes on Northwestern, a team with a history of FCS upsets. The Wildcats' coach, David Braun, is no stranger to the FCS level, having served as North Dakota State's defensive coordinator. Will his familiarity with FCS football be enough to secure a win?
Then there's Youngstown State, led by the formidable Beau Brungard, squaring off against Kentucky. The Penguins have the quarterback prowess to give the Wildcats a run for their money. And let's not forget North Dakota, who nearly upset Nebraska in 2022, returning to Lincoln with a dual-threat quarterback and an All-American edge rusher.
The story doesn't end there. Tennessee Tech, fresh off an 11-2 season, could capitalize on a potentially disheartened Mississippi State team. Austin Peay, with its talented quarterback Chris Parson, poses a threat to Vanderbilt, who might be vulnerable after the departure of their star quarterback. And Monmouth, a team with a knack for upsetting Group of Six teams, takes on West Virginia, a program undergoing significant roster changes.
As we eagerly await the 2026 season, the question remains: Can FCS teams rise to the challenge and end the drought? It's a narrative that adds an extra layer of excitement to college football. Personally, I believe the underdog spirit of FCS teams should never be underestimated. While the odds may be stacked against them, the beauty of sports lies in the unexpected. Keep your eyes peeled, because in the world of college football, anything can happen on any given Saturday.
